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Last week, the government announced a program that will substantially lower payments for many homeowners who have little or no equity, but only if they are at least 90 days delinquent. Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, predicts that many homeowners who have little or no equity will stop paying their mortgage and then reduce their income to get the biggest payment cut possible. They could stop working overtime or, if two spouses work, one could quit. After the modification, they could try to boost their income again. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” Schiff says. “People are going to feel like complete morons if they don’t participate. The people getting punished are the ones who never made an irresponsible decision to buy a house they couldn’t afford.” More

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Globe and Mail
The rich world’s financial system is headed toward meltdown. Stock markets have been falling most days, money markets and credit markets have shut down as their interest-rate spreads skyrocket, and it is still too early to tell whether the raft of measures adopted by the U.S. and Europe will stem the bleeding on a sustained basis.

A generalized run on the banking system has been a source of fear for the first time in seven decades, while the shadow banking system – broker-dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, structured investment vehicles and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, and private equity firms – are at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities. On the real economic side, all the advanced economies – representing 55 per cent of global GDP – entered a recession even before the massive financial shocks that started in late summer. So we now have recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in the advanced economies.

Emerging markets were initially tied to this distress only when foreign investors began pulling out their money. Then panic spread to credit markets, money markets and currency markets, highlighting the vulnerabilities of many developing countries’ financial systems and corporate sectors, which had experienced credit booms and had borrowed short and in foreign currencies. Countries with large current-account deficits and/or large fiscal deficits and with large short-term foreign currency liabilities have been the most fragile. But even the better-performing ones – such as Brazil, Russia, India and China – are at risk of a hard landing. Many emerging markets are at risk of a severe financial crisis.

The crisis was caused by the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in history. Leveraging and bubbles were not limited to the U.S. housing market, but also characterized housing markets in other countries. Moreover, excessive borrowing by financial institutions and some segments of the corporate and public sectors occurred in many economies. As a result, a housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble and a hedge funds bubble are bursting simultaneously.

The delusion that economic contraction in the U.S. and other advanced economies would be short and shallow – a V-shaped, six-month recession – has been replaced by certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession, possibly lasting at least two years in the U.S. and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown, the prospect of a decade-long L-shaped recession – such as the one experienced by Japan after the collapse of its real-estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.

The growing disconnect between increasingly aggressive policy actions and strains in the financial market is scary. When Bear Stearns’ creditors were bailed out to the tune of $30-billion in March, the rally in equity, money and credit markets lasted eight weeks. When the U.S. Treasury announced a bailout of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in July, the rally lasted four weeks. When the $200-billion rescue of these firms was undertaken and their $6-trillion in liabilities taken over by the U.S. government, the rally lasted one day.

Until the recent U.S. and European measures were announced, there were no rallies at all. When AIG was bailed out to the tune of $85-billion, the market fell 5 per cent. Then, when the $700-billion U.S. rescue package was approved, markets fell another 7 per cent in two days. As authorities in the U.S. and abroad took ever more radical policy steps last week, stock, credit and money markets fell further, day after day. Do the measures go far enough? When policy actions don’t provide real relief to market participants, you know you are one step away from a systemic collapse of the financial and corporate sectors. A vicious circle of deleveraging, plummeting asset prices and margin calls is under way.

So we cannot rule out a systemic failure and global depression. As we have seen in recent days, it will take a big change in economic policy and very radical, co-ordinated action among all economies to avoid disaster. This includes:Another rapid round of interest-rate cuts of at least 150 basis points on average globally;A temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while insolvent financial institutions that must be shut are distinguished from distressed but solvent institutions that must be partially nationalized and given injections of public capital;A rapid reduction of insolvent households’ debt burden, preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures;Massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial institutions;Public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector in order to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid corporations and small businesses;A massive direct government fiscal stimulus that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower-income households, and provision of grants to cash- strapped local governments;An agreement between creditor countries running current-account surpluses and debtor countries running current-account deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of creditors’ surpluses to avoid disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.

Anything short of these co-ordinated actions may lead to a market crash, a global financial meltdown and worldwide depression. The measures adopted by the U.S. and Europe are a start. Now they must finish the job.

Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

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(Bloomberg)
The global financial crisis is turning into a bigger drain on the U.S. federal budget than experts estimated two weeks ago, ballooning the deficit toward $2 trillion. Bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac likely will be more expensive than expected. States are turning to Washington for fiscal help. The Federal Reserve said this week it will begin buying commercial paper, the short- term loans companies used to conduct day-to-day business, further increasing costs. And analysts now say the $700 billion bank- rescue plan passed by Congress last week may have to be significantly larger. “I always assumed they would be asking for more money along the way if it was necessary, and it looks like it’s going to be necessary,” said Stan Collender, a former analyst for the House and Senate budget committees, now at Qorvis Communications in Washington. “At the moment, there’s nothing happening here that’s positive for the budget. Nothing.”

The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion. That means a lot more borrowing by Treasury, which will push up interest rates, said Greenlaw. “The Treasury’s going to be ramping up supply dramatically over the course of coming months to meet this enormous federal budget obligation,” Greenlaw told Bloomberg this week. “The supply will trigger some elevation in yields.” More

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Stephen Lendman
… and here’s what we’ve got. A global asset bubble. A predictable crisis allowed to build and mushroom. Begun after Chicago School economics took hold under Ronald Reagan. Continued under GHW Bush. Became religion under Bill Clinton, and ultimately fundamentalism under GW Bush.

The result - a “slow motion train wreck” gaining speed. Banks and other financial institutions failing globally. On September 25, the largest bank failure in US history with Washington Mutual’s collapse. Earlier it was giant insurer AIG. Before that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch a forced liquidation to Bank of America.

Others are now teetering on the edge. Strapped by toxic debt. The result of out-of-control greed for easy profits. Massive fraud to get them. Thinking they’re the best and brightest, and only mere mortals mess up. Knowing Fed moral hazard will cushion them if they do. True for some. Not for others, and learning that the Federal Reserve (the world’s key central bank) failed in its primary job. To protect the country’s financial system from insolvency. By contributing to a financial crisis and one of confidence. By creating near-limitless amounts of capital. Fueling a housing bubble. Outsized consumer debt, and irresponsible investments free from government oversight. Fraudulent ones involving multi-trillions of dollars.

Partnering with government to make it easy. Risking a global economic meltdown as a result. Scrambling to find solutions. Unsure if there are any. The present crisis is unparalled. Maybe it can be fixed, and maybe not. The problem is multi-fold. A perfect storm involving:

– residential housing;

– commercial real estate;

– consumer over-indebtedness;

– unknown amounts of toxic debt (in the multi-trillions);

– affecting world finance and economies;

– causing bankruptcies;

– many more will follow;

– selected ones bailed out;

– the entire system endangered;

– consumer money market, bank accounts and private pension funds as well; government backing is needed to protect them; there’s not enough money to do it; and

– the contagion is spreading; threatening world economies and people everywhere.

This time is really different. A $700 billion bailout (called the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 - EESA) is just a down payment. Trillions will be needed in the end. Other nations contributing to help. The problems are deeper and more intractable than anyone expected. Before this ends, unimaginable amounts of capital will be written off. Too much to even contemplate. Bad investments contaminating good ones. Threatening world financial structures with paralysis. Severe economic damage to their economies as a result. Eroding industrial capitalism as we know it. At best managing a short-term fix and delaying a final denouement for a later time. Under new management with the current and past ones claiming no responsibility. And unmindful of millions of homeowners facing foreclosure and bankruptcy. One in ten currently behind in their payments. Others losing their jobs and way of life. They’re the most vulnerable. Least able to cope, and for some their ability to survive.

According to The New York Times, here’s how the Paulson scheme helps them: “it requires the government to use its new role as owner of distressed mortgage-backed securities to make ‘more aggressive’ efforts to prevent home foreclosures.” Weasel words. No specifics. No assurances, and nothing apparently for homeowners already in foreclosure.

On September 22, ahead of the announced agreement, American Research Group (ASG) published its latest public sentiment poll results, and they were stunning. At 19%, George Bush scored lowest ever for a US president, surpassing Harry Truman at the depth of the Korean War and Richard Nixon during Watergate. It came at a time ASG’s results showed 82% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, and only 17% approve of how Bush is handling it. Among registered voters, the number is 18% at a time no one surveyed (zero percent) said the economy is improving and 68% say it’s in recession. True or false, it’s how they feel. How the crisis affects them, and that’s what counts most.

Yet on September 24, the president addressed the nation audaciously. Callously dismissing public pain and anger. Deceitfully stating outright lies. A typical performance. Demanded that Congress give the treasury secretary carte blanche authority over $700 billion to address “a serious financial crisis.” Asked taxpayers to pay for corporate fraud. Reward criminals and ignore their crimes. Said nothing about the root cause. The effect on ordinary people, or how Paulson’s scheme will help them. Ignored growing public opposition. Large numbers of credible observers believing the proposed solution is worse than the problem. The most honest of them saying it will enrich fraudsters and offer no help for homeowners.

Yet Bush concluded that “democratic capitalism (is the) best system the world has ever devised” in spite of clear evidence that it’s broken and corrupted. Exploits people for profit. Enriches the few at the expense of the many. Rewards criminals for their crimes. Protects the rich from beneficial social change.

Ahead of the president’s address on September 24, The New York Times showed a rare display of candor in a critical Timothy Egan opinion piece. About “nearly nationalizing the banking system and giving the treasury secretary more power than a king….whose decisions may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.” He asked readers to remember “where the biggest heist took place, and how Wall Street dragged down the rest of the country once before,” referring to the Great Depression but leaving out everything in between.

He stressed, however, “how Wall Street brought down main street,” and things have now come full circle. Deregulation unleashed casino capitalism, and bankers made a killing. Now they’re in trouble and Bush demands “the biggest bailout in American history….or the world will crumble. He said the a similar thing in the run-up to war” so who can believe him now. Egan quotes a dirt farmer asking why not the same “concerns (for) average Americans.” Because “we the people” Bush speaks for are them, not us.

As for Paulson’s plan, here’s what the Financial Times writer Martin Wolf said on September 23. He called it “not a true solution to the crisis.” It doesn’t address the “fundamental problem.” It’s “neither a necessary nor an efficient solution. It is not necessary because the (Fed can) manage illiquidity through its many lender-of-last resort operations. It is not efficient because it can only deal with insolvency by buying bad assets (overpriced junk) at far above their true value, thereby guaranteeing big losses for taxpayers and providing an open-ended bail-out to the most irresponsible investors.”

Wolf also objects to Paulson getting unchecked powers. Providing little or no help to the poor and “ill-informed” (read duped) borrowers, and lists other operational suggestions “essential for the long-run health of any financial system” without needing “a penny of public money.” Among them, forcing creditors to take losses and not taxpayers.

Unmentioned in his article is the underlying fraud behind the crisis and a lack of regulatory oversight that made it easy. Also, omitted was what’s covered in the section below.

The 1937 Housing Act’s Empowering Section 8 Authority

One Section 8 sentence provided the basis for the treasury secretary’s empowerment. It reads:

“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administration agency.”

In other words, unchallengeable czarist powers. In contrast to the 1930s Reconstruction Finance Corporation’s (RFC) closely supervised operations. That era’s Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) that refinanced homes to prevent foreclosures. And the 1980s Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) mandate to liquidate assets from failed S & Ls. Not dispense free money for bad investments unchecked. The above authorities subject to judicial review. Not governed by a financial boss to run as he pleased.

The Announced “Bailout” Deal - The Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008 (ESA)

According to The New York Times, EESA calls for “strict oversight of the program by a Congressional panel and conflict-of-interest rules for firms hired by the Treasury to help run the program.” Also “a change in the bankruptcy laws sought by some Democrats to give judges the authority to modify the terms of first mortgages.”

Given the bipartisan blame for today’s crisis. The post-9/11 willingness to give the administration near-carte blanche authority across the board. Eight years of indifference to social needs and public welfare. Who now believes that policy going forward will change and that the agreed-on scheme will protect people or curb the secretary’s authority. On his own initiative, George Bush usurped supreme power post-9/11 while few in Congress blanched. None in leadership positions. Little today has changed.

Disclaimers notwithstanding from both sides of the aisle, Wall Street is pleased. Paulson got what he wanted. The plan’s fine print will assure it. Public money. Far more, if needed, than $700 billion. The power to dispense it freely. With weak at best oversight and judicial review, and the ability to conceal fraud and malfeasance. In short, the between-the-lines meaning of Paulson saying: “We have made great progress toward a deal, which will work and be effective in the marketplace.”

The same one that fleeced the nation and betrayed the public trust. Now empowered to take more with the full faith and blessing of the government from both sides of the aisle. Belying George Bush’s insult that “The rescue effort….is not aimed at Wall Street; it is aimed at your street.” And Nancy Pelosi’s hypocrisy that: “All of this was done in a way to insulate Main Street and everyday Americans from the crisis on Wall Street….I want to congratulate all of the negotiators for the great work they have done.” Who in banker boardrooms would disagree.

Some Relevant Facts

Clearly the present crisis is unprecedented. As stated above, maybe it can be fixed and maybe not. No one is sure because no one understands it fully. Where all the problems lie. To what degree can they be contained. How great their fallout may be. Their full effect on world economies. How bad things may get before they stabilize and improve, and the way the world will look like when they do.

Whatever’s coming, industrial capitalism is eroding. A kleptocracy replaced it. If the system is saved, it will be temporary, and an even greater one will emerge. Why this article is called Grand Theft America. A criminal class runs it, and they’re rewarded for their crimes. Backed by the full faith and credit of the government with taxpayer money. A near-limitless amount created and borrowed. Who said crime doesn’t pay!

For over 30 years, an unimaginable wealth transfer to the rich has been ongoing. To the top 1% and corporate America from most others. It proves the failure of a system that rewards the few at the expense of the many. Licenses greed and creates this kind of global financial crisis so far uncontained. It begs the questions: what caused it and what’s the fallout:

– the ruinous effects of militarization; insane amounts of spending on it; “military Keynesianism;” believing capitalism thrives on foreign wars; “Global Wars on Terrorism” currently; their costs are unsustainable and are heading the nation toward bankruptcy;

– the drain on an already weakened economy;

– maxed out consumers now debt slaves;

– so is government from unrepayable obligations in the tens of trillions; not the fictitious “official” reported numbers;

– the possibility of future default; hyperinflation; national bankruptcy, and the demise of the republic;

– human default as well: mass bankruptcies; home foreclosures; rising unemployment; increased poverty; and growing numbers of families unable to survive;

– the subprime crisis is just part of it; seven million mortgages sold to the unwary; the idea was to criminally defraud them; offer two-year teaser rates; then reset them higher semi-annually based on an interest rate benchmark; payments soared as much as 30% and became unaffordable; the scheme was to cash in at the expense of mortgage holders, and five million risk losing their homes and life savings;

– an “economic Pearl Harbor” for Warren Buffett; for Senator Chris Dodd a “50-state Katrina;” a “house of cards (built on) reckless finance” for author Kevin Phillips; Frankenstein finance; casino capitalism; for most Americans, a human catastrophe;

– the demise of our manufacturing base; letting malls replace factories as the economy’s engine;

– permitting the financialization of the economy; speculative finance writ large; replacing productive investment; totally deregulated; run by fraudsters; free from government oversight; letting investment banks game the system at up to 40 to 1 leverage; until 2004, 12 to 1 was the maximum;

– a government - business conspiracy for global dominance and the single-minded pursuit of profit; unfettered amounts of it through cleverly manipulated schemes; transferring multi-trillions of dollars from workers to the most wealthy; doing it without people even noticing;

– creative destruction to let giant businesses grow larger by removing and devouring smaller ones; even large ones;

– permitting and/or ignoring massive fraud; involving multi-trillions of dollars; the largest ever Ponzi scheme; a calculated crime with media complicity through silence; not reporting a growing problem as it emerged; waiting until it mushroomed and still not explaining it accurately and honestly; and

– wondering won if the best and brightest can fix things or if no amount of money or ingenuity can do it.

The Plan’s Architect - Henry Paulson

From a Nixon administration staff assistant to the assistant secretary of defense. To assistant to key Watergate official John Erlichman. To Goldman Sachs in 1974. To a partnership in the firm in 1982. Then Chief Operation Officer (COO) in 1994 and CEO in 1998 by a palace coup against co-chairman and now New Jersey governor Jon Corzine, according to New York Times columnist Floyd Norris.

Even before the current crisis, Goldman was the preeminent Wall Street firm. A survivor. The largest, and along with Morgan Stanley, the remaining two Street giants left standing. But no longer as investment banks after the Federal Reserve’s September 21 announcement that both companies will become bank holding companies after a mandatory five-day waiting period, now over.

In theory, they’ll be under stricter Fed oversight but will get Fed help to complete their transition and thereafter. As a well-connected financial powerhouse, whatever Goldman wants, Goldman gets. Always in the past by recycling top executives into Democrat and Republican administrations, and now more than ever given Henry Paulson’s extraordinary financial czar powers.

Before his $700 billion giveaway plan, the 2008 Housing and Economic Recovery Act gave him authority to fleece taxpayers by rescuing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as raise the national debt by over $5 trillion dollars. He also orchestrated the demise of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual. The forced sale of Merrill Lynch, and arranged the government takeover of AIG.

He has near-open checkbook authority to reward close allies with loans and free money and let them acquire troubled assets on the cheap. This from a man with much responsibility for today’s crisis. A June 12, 2006 Business Week cover story titled “Mr. Risk Goes to Washington” called him “one of the key architects of a more daring Wall Street, where securities firms are taking greater and greater chances in their pursuit of profits.” Such as assuming huge amounts of debt and “placing big bets (with their own money) on all sorts of exotic derivatives and other securities.” Advising clients to do the same. Casino capitalism at up to 40 to one leverage. Hugely profitable in up markets. Disastrous in down ones.

Paulson earned millions and now has an estimated $700 million + net worth. For 2007 overall, according to Bloomberg.com, “Wall Street’s five biggest firms (paid out) a record $39 billion in bonuses (and did it in) a year when three of the companies suffered the worst quarterly losses in their history and shareholders lost more than $80 billion.”

Speculative finance pays well, even in down years, and it even raised Bloomberg’s ire in a Michael Lewis September 24 commentary titled “America Must Rescue the Bonuses at Goldman Sachs.” It reflected on a possible global financial collapse but sacrificing Goldman bonuses is another matter. If firm “employees (take) pay cut(s), it will be (tantamount to failure and) our country may never recover.” How will the company induce new talent to come aboard. Goldman is well-positioned to get maximum gain from its former CEO’s $700 billion handout.

Why else would Warren Buffett bet $5 billion on the firm! For preferred shares paying an annual 10% dividend. Warrants as well to buy $5 billion in common stock at a $115 a share strike price. Well off its $251 peak and below the latest September 26 $138 a share.

Joseph Stiglitz on the Economy

Stiglitz was formerly part of the system he now criticizes. Free market fundamentalism in its most extreme form. For many months, he warned about a worsening global economy and growing financial crisis that’s as bad or worse than the Great Depression.

He sees similar problems now as then:

– outsized speculation through excessive leverage;

– pyramid schemes;

– multiple bubbles through so-called Wall Street innovations; and

– a lack of transparency and government oversight.

Combined they created a crisis “so great that no one knows exactly the magnitude of the risk they face. It is particularly bad because our financial institutions are based on trust. You put money in the bank and you trust that you can get (it) out, so trust is absolutely essential for the functioning of our financial markets and economy.”

The problem is exacerbated by those providing the news. The dominant media and frequent spokespeople. Industry representatives like Lehman Brothers CEO saying last April that “we turned the corner, and the economy is on the uptick.” Also from the president, treasury secretary and others in government as things keep worsening.

Stiglitz calls this a “top down crisis.” The “$3 trillion cost” of foreign wars a key. Creating huge deficits and consuming vital resources needed for growth. “This is the first war in American history that has been totally financed on the credit card. For the last five years….we have been a debt economy.” Not since the Revolutionary War have “we have had to turn to foreigners,” so now “40% of our national debt is financed by (them). Even as we went (to war) we had a big deficit, and yet the president called for tax cuts for upper middle class Americans.” Insane but we did it.

Another factor is other countries trusting that our economy is working well, and when the president says it is he’s believable. “This administration burned that trust….no wonder everybody around the world is losing confidence.” Even worse is that the administration isn’t dealing responsibly with these problems, mostly because they’re of our own making.

Stiglitz worries about the “real economy:” home prices dropping; owners forced into foreclosure; more financial firms in crisis; and a good many won’t survive. He sees a weakening financial system unable or unwilling “to provide credit (the lifeblood of the economy for) loans, mortgages,” and that means lower home prices, contracting businesses, rising unemployment, and a “downward vicious cycle. You have to be in fantasy land to say that everything is fine (or even) that we have turned the corner.” He sees at least another 18 months of pain. Maybe longer. Who can know or how much.

For sure, real economic stimulus is needed. Productive investment. Not the phony “bailout” kind proposed. Aiding state and local governments. Better unemployment insurance and more for infrastructure. Providing a basis for long-term growth. Not feeding markets and starving the hungry, as one writer put it. Not believing markets on their own will fix things.

Understanding that government must intervene. Responsibly. Facilitate job creation. End casino capitalism. Provide incentives for real economic growth. Let foreclosed and threatened homeowners stay in their homes. Work out an equitable way to do it. “We learned a painful lesson in the 1930s and today: The invisible hand often seems invisible because it’s not there.” It led to the kind of predicament now confronting the country. The solutions proposed will just compound it.

Ones that Can Fix It

Good ones not considered. From figures like Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Others as well with solid advice to:

– make fraudsters eat the bulk of their losses;

– use public funds only “to sustain the orderly operation of the financial system;”

– minimize speculative finance; the root of the current problem;

– “minimize moral hazard” - the Paulson (and Bernanke) “put” picking up where Greenspan left off;

– let delinquent homeowners stay in their homes and pay rent;

– curtail executive compensation for companies getting government aid;

– make a key Fed responsibility the prevention of asset bubbles; reinstitute regulations to do it; Glass-Steagall for starters that prohibited commercial and investment banks and insurance companies from combining;

– impose a modest financial transactions tax to curb excesses and raise revenue;

– trade assets, like credit default swaps, openly on exchanges to establish fair value for them;

– impose strict limits on leverage;

– keep Fannie and Freddie public institutions; their status before being privatized in 1968; and

– restructure the Fed democratically; a far better solution is abolish it and let government control its own money; use it responsibly for all Americans, not just the privileged few.

Other recommendations recognize no quick or easy solutions to problems this great. Economist James Galbraith says borrowers need collateral. A new Home Owners Loan Corporation to rewrite mortgages. Manage rental conversions, and decide what degraded properties should be demolished. Which ones to save and refurbish. Set it up in communities under federal guidelines and do it quickly. Help state and local governments strapped for cash. Reestablish federal revenue sharing. A National Infrastructure Bank making capital available for infrastructure. Put people to work building it. Protect seniors and near-retirees from wealth loss. Extra Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid revenue will help. Get money in the hands of people who’ll spend it.

Address other crucial issues like energy conservation, reconstruction and renewable power. Infrastructure overall. Tuition help for students. Another GI bill. Credit card and mortgage interest rate caps. Rescind anti-consumist laws like the misnamed 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act. A boon for credit card companies and other businesses. Unfairly burdensome to the public.

A whole range of other projects and ideas to redirect the economy away from speculative finance and militarism and toward high-return public investment. Do it before it’s too late. Recognize that the present course is unsustainable. Imagine a government working for everyone and not just the privileged few. Imagine it not tolerating fraud and malfeasance.

Instead, Congress agreed to a “bailout” and passed a record $634 billion omnibus spending bill (to run the government through March 6, 2009) to include a record Pentagon budget; $25 billion in low-interest auto industry loans; maybe with no provision for repayment; lifting a quarter-century ban on Atlantic and Pacific off-shore drilling; billions more in earmarked pork; and likely more coming later for the airlines and other endangered companies. Taxpayers for Common Sense criticized the bill at the same time it noted that government “bailout” appropriations will reach about $1.2 trillion with the $700 billion Paulson scheme. Others put the total above $1.5 trillion, and many say it’s only for starters.

Paying “hold-to-maturity” prices compounds the fraud. For securitized assets worth a fraction of full value. Much of it pennies on the dollar, if anything. Trillions of dollars of toxic ones. All sorts of them. Newly invented ones. Structured finance and insurance. Asset-backed securities. Repackaged into marketable pools. Sold to investors. It’s been done for decades but only recently so out of hand. Greed and deregulation created an alphabet soup of levered-up, high-risk securitized assets. Financial alchemy. Largely outright fraud, including:

– collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), including auto loans, credit and corporate debt;

– collateralized (asset-backed home) mortgage obligations (CMOs);

– commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS);

– mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and levered loans;

– structured investment vehicles (SIVs);

– special purpose vehicles (SPVs);

– pass-through securities;

– credit and interest rate default swaps;

– commercial paper and more;

– repackaged arcane stuff most people don’t understand; even investors who bought them; like eating a stew with no idea what’s in it; a recipe with no list of ingredients; learning too late it’s toxic and you’re in trouble;

Credit card companies as well from growing amounts of unrepayable credit card debt. The auto industry already assured of a low-interest $25 billion loan (or maybe handout) for starters. Airlines coming next. Select homebuilders and troubled companies called too big to fail. If they’re too big to fail, says one observer, they’re too big to exist.

EESA will give the treasury secretary near-carte blanche powers to conceal fraud and help the fraudsters, including his former company, Goldman Sachs, now in trouble. Pick and choose among others. Which will survive, and what less favored ones will go on the block at fire sale prices or disappear. Today there are 9000 banks in the country. In a decade, half or more of them may be gone.

Economist Michael Hudson calls EESA “cash for trash” and a “giveaway,” not a bailout. A “transfer of wealth to insiders.” A financial coup d’etat. The “largest and most inequitable (kind) since the (19th century) land giveaways to the railroad barons.”

In this case, socializing losses to let fraudsters “sell out all their bad bets.” Junk of all sorts: a stew of securitized assets, bad mortgages, car loans, credit card loans, student loans, anything for insiders stuck with too much of them.

A doomed scheme that will raise the debt level instead of lowering it. Enrich fraudsters with taxpayer funds. Stick the public with toxic junk. Maybe buy time before more people and markets catch on, but, in the end, cripple the economy and erode industrial capitalism with it.

Hudson is justifiably angry given the amount of fraud and deceit. The government-concocted scheme to whitewash it. Reward criminals. Harm most others, and wreck the country at the same time. He says a “kleptocratic class has taken over the economy to replace industrial capitalism….’banksers’ ” for FDR and earlier condemned by Jefferson with this stinging comment:

“I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”

A half century later Lincoln said:

“I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country….corporations (including bankers) have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.”

Lincoln refused to pay bankers usurious rates to finance the Civil War and got Congress to pass the 1862 Legal Tender Act. It empowered the US Treasury to issue “greenbacks” that were interest-free because government printed its own money. When Lincoln was assassinated in 1865, the “Greenback Law” was rescinded. A new national banking act was passed, and the government once again had to pay interest to bankers.

On June 4, 1963, President Kennedy issued executive order (EO) 11110 giving the president authority to issue currency. He ordered the treasury to begin printing “United States (Treasury) Notes” to replace “Federal Reserve Notes.” He began a process to let government control its own money and no longer private bankers under the guise of the Federal Reserve. Months later, Kennedy was assassinated. Once Lyndon Johnson took office, he rescinded EO 11110 and reestablished the current system. More on that below.

The Two Greatest Ever Financial Crimes - Today’s Fraud and the 1913 Federal Reserve Act’s Privatization of Money Creation

Most people think the Federal Reserve is a government agency, subject to its control. It’s sometimes mistakenly called a quasi-governmental decentralized central bank to disguise its real identity and purpose. Its Eccles building headquarters compounds the subterfuge. Below it’s stripped away.

The Federal Reserve is a private for-profit banking cartel. Owned and run by major banks and Wall Street in each of its 12 Districts. It was created and operates in violation of Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution that states that Congress alone shall have the power to create money and regulate its value. In 1935, the Supreme Court ruled that Congress cannot constitutionally delegate this power to another authority, but, in fact it did.

On December 22, 1913, between 1:30 - 4:30 AM, the Federal Reserve Act was shepherded through a special Congressional Conference Committee. Then voted on and passed the next day. Two days before Christmas with many members gone and most others with no time to read or consider this momentous document.

By enacting this law, Congress and President Woodrow Wilson defrauded the public. Wilson later said (when it was too late to matter) he made a mistake and “unwittingly ruined my country.” This from a man who was an intellect. Trained in the law. A PhD in political science and president of Princeton University in his earlier years.

The Federal Reserve Act gives private bankers the most important of all powers. The one most of all that governments should never relinquish. The authority to print money. Control its supply. Its price through the Fed Funds rate and how it influences the whole yield curve. Loan it out for profit, and charge government interest on its own money. It’s later returned minus operating expenses and a guaranteed 6% profit. Taxpayers foot the bill. An early and continuing example of wealth transfer from the public to powerful bankers. Illegally sanctioned by Congress and the president.

The Fed literally creates money out of nothing. Expands or contracts its supply as it wishes - with no government oversight or control. Gold once backed it until Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971. Suspended dollar convertibility into the metal, and ended compliance with the Bretton Woods core provision. The US dollar became fiat currency. Mere paper. Backed by nothing except the faith of the issuing authority.

Given today’s crisis, that faith is fast eroding and is to blame for dollar weakness. Mostly because of profligate policies by private bankers running the country’s monetary policy for their own gain. The grandest of grand thefts along with today’s all-consuming fraud. Backed by the full faith and credit of the government, and up to now at least, with most people none the wiser.

A Growing Public Response to the Crisis

For how long is the question given growing public anger and people expressing it publicly. It has administration officials worried enough to order what Michel Chossudovsky wrote in his September 26 article titled “Pre-election Militarization of the North American Homeland.”

He cites an Army Times article saying that the 3rd Infantry’s 1st Brigade Combat Team is coming home (in October) from Iraq as (according to the Times) “an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.” Perhaps with a manufactured incident as pretext. To defend the homeland against ourselves. Be deployed against dissent. Erupting public anger. On city streets like in Denver and St. Paul. Displaying civil disobedience. Defiance against fraud, deceit, illegal foreign wars, and nearly eight intolerable years under George Bush and a complicit Congress. Capped by the current financial crisis touching everyone while government rewards crime and hangs its victims out to dry.

Chossudovsky is blunt about the possibilities. The 3rd Infantry’s 1st Brigade is for combat. It’s not the National Guard or local police. It’s trained for war. “Equipped to kill people” with potent weapons, and a last hurrah scheme may be planned to divert public attention from the financial crisis. A “terrorist” attack with “chemical, biological” or other dangerous weapons. A possible pretext for martial law at a time the administration and Congress are vulnerable. When people are angry about Washington protecting the privileged. Partnering with them in crime. Defrauding the public and stifling dissent. Moving one step closer to tyranny and away from silly notions about democracy. Proving crime indeed does pay and awfully well on Wall Street. “It’s the economy, stupid.” Theirs, not ours. More

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FORTUNE (New York) The Treasury secretary and Federal Reserve chairman have spent September dashing off blank check after blank check in a bid to quell turbulent markets. Since Sept. 5, the feds have pledged $200 billion to shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, $85 billion to prop up insurer AIG, and $50 billion to guarantee money-market funds. Then there are the untold sums the U.S. might spend under the plan Paulson unveiled Friday to set up a bad bank to relieve institutions of their troubled mortgage assets. And let’s not forget the hundreds of billions the Fed has poured into the markets in the name of maintaining liquidity. Even in a U.S. economy that produces $14 trillion worth of goods and services a year, that’s a lot of cash. Spending all that money, sooner or later, will intensify long-standing questions about the nation’s fiscal health, possibly at the expense of another drop in the value of the dollar. More

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Barry Grey
WSWS
The US government takeover of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has dealt a shattering blow to the ideology of market capitalism, which has been used for decades to justify a relentless assault on the working class and a vast transfer of wealth to the American ruling elite. The endless invocations of the virtues of private enterprise, individual entrepreneurship and self-reliance, used to demonize socialism and defend a system that exploits the vast majority for the benefit of a financial elite, have been exposed as frauds. When it comes to big capital, losses are socialized. Only profits remain private.

The same forces who year after year have inveighed against “big government” in order to justify the removal of all legal impediments to the accumulation of corporate profits and private fortunes, and carry out the destruction of social safeguards for the working class, have engineered a massive expansion of government power to safeguard the interests of the financial elite. The bailout has as well exposed the real relations of political power and influence behind the façade of American democracy. The largest government bailout of private companies in world history—whose ultimate cost to taxpayers is likely to reach hundreds of billions—was sanctioned in advance by the Democratic Congress and given instant approval by the leadership of both parties and both of their presidential candidates.

There have been no investigations into the greatest financial scandal in world history. Neither party has any interest in bringing to light the swindling and skullduggery of the Wall Street moguls, because they are both bound hand and foot to those responsible for the financial debacle. What has been revealed is the existence in the United States, behind the increasingly tattered veneer of democratic institutions, of a plutocracy—the political rule of the rich. When it comes to the basic interests of the financial aristocracy, both parties and all of the official institutions of society snap to attention and do the bidding of their Wall Street masters.

The bailout of the two mortgage giants—which account for 80 percent of new home mortgages in the US—is a demonstration of the historic failure of American capitalism and the profit system on a global scale. It was precipitated by the deepest economic crisis since the Depression of the 1930s, whose epicenter is the United States. The Bush administration moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under conditions of a rapid erosion of international confidence in the solvency of not only these two companies, but of the United States government itself. Over the past several months, global investors, including central banks and government investment funds, primarily in Asia and Russia, have been dumping their vast holdings in mortgage-backed securities issued by the US government-sponsored firms. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have a combined liability of $5.3 trillion in mortgage-backed securities which they own or guarantee. The run on their assets has not only intensified the crisis of the two companies, which are massively leveraged and have suffered billions of dollars in losses as a result of the collapse of the US housing market, it has thrown into question the status of all US government debt, including US Treasury bonds.

The US, by far the world’s largest debtor nation, with a current account deficit of nearly $800 billion, is sustained by the inflow of hundreds of billions of dollars from abroad. It currently imports $1 trillion in foreign capital every year, or over $4 billion every working day. But the assumption by the US government of the debts of the two mortgage companies, while averting an immediate financial meltdown, only compounds the crisis of American capitalism. As Martin Wolf, the financial correspondent of the Financial Times, wrote on Tuesday, “As a result, US housing finance has been brought under direct government control and, in the process, the gross liabilities of the US government, properly measured, have increased by $5,400 billion, a sum equal to the entire publicly held debt and 40 percent of gross domestic product.”

At a stroke, US sovereign debt has doubled and is now roughly equal to America’s gross domestic product. On July 14, one day after US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for legislation to give him unilateral and unlimited powers to use public funds to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Wall Street Journal editorialized on the implications of a government bailout of the two companies. It wrote: “But with financial woes mounting, some investors are betting they may profit from weighing the unthinkable question: Could the US government default?” This immense increase in US government indebtedness can only further undermine international confidence in the credit-worthiness of US Treasury bonds, resulting in a further decline in the dollar and a sharp increase in the interest paid by the US to borrow from its international creditors. More

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Jim Rogers
The nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shows that the U.S. is “more communist than China right now” but its brand of socialism is meant only for the rich, investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Europe on Monday. “America is more communist than China is right now. You can see that this is welfare of the rich, it is socialism for the rich… it’s just bailing out financial institutions,” Rogers said. Stock markets jumped after the U.S. government’s decision to launch what could be its biggest federal bailout ever, in a bid to support the housing market and ward off more global financial market turbulence. But Rogers said in the long term the move spelled trouble. “This is madness, this is insanity, they have more than doubled the American national debt in one weekend for a bunch of crooks and incompetents. I’m not quite sure why I or anybody else should be paying for this,” Rogers told “Squawk Box Europe.” More

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Robert Lenzner
A sucker’s rally–that’s the pungent opinion of New York University economist Nouriel Roubini about the dramatic rally in stock prices in the wake of the Treasury bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It’s a trap, warns Roubini, because investors face a severe recession well into 2009, and both consumers and financial institutions are still massively leveraged. Roubini is a purist about attacking the bailout for giving current investors an equity stake while supporting the gargantuan debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so as not to trigger troublesome losses for the foreign central banks and institutions that own vast amounts of Fannie and Freddie debt. What particularly agitates Roubini is the Treasury supporting bonds that yield even more than its own debt even though Freddie and Fannie instruments are riskier.

Foreigners own 39% of all asset-backed securities in the U.S. and would bear 39% of any mark-to-market write-downs associated with those securities. That’s 39% of $5 trillion, or $2 trillion–double the losses forecast for all financial institutions. This makes the savings and loan bailout and the 1990 recession look like a minor irritation to the financial system and economy in comparison. Croesus recognizes all too well that the U.S. Treasury cannot afford to antagonize China, Japan, Russia, European central banks, and a host of regional banks that own these securities en masse. As the new lender of last resort (though the Federal Reserve remains the ultimate lender of last resort) the last thing Secretary Henry Paulson wants to see is a run on the dollar from the dumping of dollar-denominated bonds. Heaven forbid.

Like Roubini, Croesus is staggered by the way each bailout or federal pump priming of liquidity triggers a burst of optimism by stock traders that the worst of the nightmare is over, and that it’s safe to go long on the market again. It reminds Croesus of the stories of travelers in the desert imagining an oasis in the distance that, alas, is only hot, dry desert with no watering hole. The realistic-pessimistic Roubini is predicting the need for another even more expensive bailout by Uncle Sam. This will be a multiple of the $29 billion for Bear Stearns in March and the $200 billion for Freddie and Fannie, he believes. This will be caused by the need to bail out the overload of debt held by “shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened U.S. consumers.” More

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Elizabeth MacDonald
The Treasury Department’s bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could ignite a cascade of sizable writedowns and losses at up to 40 banks around the country, analysts say. The reason is the Treasury did not adopt in its rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a plan that would protect the value of the preferred shares, or the common stock, in the two mortgage giants. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about $5.4 tn in home loans–half the nation’s total, and half the size of the US gross domestic product. Preferred shares are different than common stock, as they carry no voting rights, among other things.

As a result, the Treasury Department’s plan now threatens to blow open gaping potholes in dozens of bank balance sheets due to the resulting drops in value in Fannie and Freddie preferred shares. Because of the bailout, the preferred stock in Fannie and Freddie could eventually be worth just pennies on the dollar, or even zero, according to some analysts.

And because of the looming losses, the regionals will be forced to either go hat in hand to, say, the private equity crowd, consolidate, merge, or go out of business–or, ironically, raise capital via more preferred share offerings. The potential write-downs and losses come after the Treasury Department and the Federal Housing Finance Agency seized control of the mortgage giants, in what is expected to be the world’s biggest government bailout that effectively makes the US government the planet’s largest mortgage finance company. More

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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)
The multimillion-dollar exit packages for the ousted chief executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac drew sharp criticism on Monday from shareholder- and consumer rights groups that deemed the compensation excessive, particularly given the almost-complete collapse of the mortgage giants’ shares. Daniel Mudd, the outgoing CEO of Fannie Mae, could receive more than $9 million in combined severance pay, retirement benefits and deferred compensation based on his employment agreement, according to executive compensation consulting firm James F. Reda & Associates. Departing Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron may collect as much as $14.1 million, the consulting firm said. The total includes an estimated $8.8 million tied to an unique provision in his contract that became effective last November, when Freddie’s troubles had already come under scrutiny. In light of the drubbing the stocks have taken, shareholder advocates were irate that the CEOs’ departures could bring them financial rewards. More

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(MarketWatch)
The U.S. government’s seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has triggered more than $1 trillion of credit default swaps tied to the mortgage giants. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said in a memo on Monday that 13 major credit default swap dealers unanimously agreed that a credit event had occurred. After a conference call this morning, the ISDA said it will launch a protocol to help traders settle these derivatives contracts. The protocol will contain details of an auction that will take place to determine the value of the agreements to be settled. More

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting new chief executives and a new lease on life in a government rescue plan outlined Sunday by the Treasury Department and other regulators. Treasury is buying preferred shares in the two firms and taking them over through a conservatorship overseen by the Federal Finance Housing Agency, a new regulator created by Congress this summer as part of a sweeping effort to rescue the faltering housing market. TIAA-Cref’s Herb Allison will take over from Daniel Mudd as Fannie’s chief executive, and US Bancorp’s David Moffett will take over from Richard Syron at Freddie. Taxpayers are on the hook for 10s of billions in potential losses from the two firms’ deteriorating portfolios of mortgage securities. Common stock shareholders will be nearly wiped out, and preferred shareholders (many of which are banks and insurance companies) will take a hit. Still, it is the bond holders and home buyers who are the government’s chief concern. More

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Ilargi
The Automatic Earth
After yesterday’s focus on the demise of the yen carry trade, the story today is of course the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bottomless black hole. Wonder what the connection might be….I think the best thing to do is simply to provide a range of articles, and -as always- let you make up your own mind. Still, I do have a few comments first. To start with, someone suggested this morning that Hank Paulson took the job of Secretary of the Treasury in order to earn his place in the history books as the hero who saved the US economy. While that is funny, it’s not true. Paulson’s goal has been, all along and from the start, to transfer the losses incurred in the credit markets to the population at large, the taxpayers, and away from his friends and peers, who form a substantial part of the Wall Street banking establishment. It’s easy to recognize who is not a friend of Hank: just look at who holds the empty bag.

A lot of questions are out there about the timing of the imminent bail-out, as well as the precise shape it will take. As for the timing: here’s a few thoughts. I read somewhere that the government has frantically tried to stop this from happening on their watch. While that sounds right at first sight, I keep coming back to the notion that if they DO let in happen while they’re in charge, they are, well, in charge. Paulson now controls who gets what and when. He’ll be gone in January. That’s a lot of power. He may know more than me about who’ll follow in his footsteps, but then again, he may not be so sure. Plus, neither of the presidential candidates may want this on their watch either. There’s plenty of pressure on Bush to clean up his garbage. Which is also why I expect GM and Ford to go under between the election and the inauguration of the next drone.

More on the timing: Within weeks, Fannie and Freddie have to refinance $225 billion in -mostly short term- debt. There is no guarantee they will succeed, and in fact this is where Paulson may certainly have the edge on us. If he’s been told by the CEO’s of both firms that they can’t get it done, there’s a good reason for your timing. And there’s something potentially much bigger. The Federal Accountancy Standards Board, FASB, has announced new standards, a.k.a. FASB-140. It looks like they will be implemented, although they have been delayed. If memory serves, they will now come into effect in January 2009. They will require Fannie and Freddie to take an additional $3.7 trillion of debt on their balance sheets.

And even with the insanely low reserve requirements that they are under as “semi-government” companies, they would need to raise new capital to the tune of $80-100 billion ($46 billion for Fannie alone), in one big whopping step. In view of the fact that the markets have a collective orgasm these days if Freddie manages to raise a mere $3 billion, the potential problems are obvious. A last point on the timing: Kenneth Rogoff predicted the failure of one of the big US banks within months. If that is about to happen, it would not be a good idea to let it coincide with the Fannie and Freddie bail-out, since this failure would land the FDIC in the ER.

As for the shape and form of the bail-out: It looks like the government will opt to for “conservatorship”, a sort of bankruptcy protection that lets them fire all the people they want, and bring in “overseers”. Who will then dole out a few billion of your tax money every so often, instead of in one big batch: looks much nicer, even though the result is the same or worse.

While most analysts think holders of common shares will be left with zero, there are some who argue with that. I think it all depends on who’s holding it: if they’re friends of Hank, they’ll be fine. As for holders of preferred shares and junior debt (last in line, unsecured), they will be “made whole” (or lose little), so goes the consensus. There have been a lot of borderline xenophobic arguments about the Chinese “blackmailing” the US over the GSE-issued mortgage backed securities they hold. But I think that the priorities lie elsewhere (I also despise xenophobia). The Chinese central bank reportedly holds $340 billion of the paper. But Pimco, the US’ largest bond investor, has over $500 billion worth. Still, the rant is about China.

Also, as for why the “preffered share”-holders (and perhaps even common shares) will be protected: there is a huge amount of it in US banks, big and small. That means that letting it sink to zip would detonate a whole series of A-bombs inside the US banking system. Which in turn would necessitate an almost instantaneous bail-out of banking deposit insurer FDIC. Since pension funds are the other main holders, many of them would be wiped clean overnight too.

So the whole train is still on track, and it’s the taxpayer that will be wrecked. The biggest transfer of wealth in humen history continues on schedule, and it will leave in its wake poverty on a scale that has not been seen in a very long time in the western world. One last thing: Remember what Nouriel Roubini said: “These GSEs were designed to make losses.” More

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The International Forecaster
Well, it’s in. It is now official. Q2 GDP was 3.3%. And if you believe that, we will be happy to sell you that bridge in Brooklyn that we have for perpetual sale to the incredibly gullible and naive. This structural icon is a magnificent piece of US Americana and infrastructure that everyone should own. It can be yours for a cool million bucks, which is a bargain considering the tolls you could impose. And never mind that we already sold it to the people who believed the NIST’s report on Building 7 of the former World Trade Center. As you know, it is perfectly OK to sell property you don’t own. If you don’t believe us, then ask all the bullion banks who sell the gold and silver they have leased from central banks and precious metals ETF’s.

The real figure for GDP is of course negative. To be charitable, let’s call it minus 1%. The reason for the ludicrously higher GDP figure, aside from the bogus government accounting practices, which are used to calculate official GDP, is that the official GDP deflator is about one third of actual. That results directly from the fact that official inflation is one third of the actual inflation you experience when you purchase goods and services. That way our corporatist, fascist government can rip off retirees on their social security benefits and give people an excuse to remain in denial about the destruction of our economy via hyper-stagflation. Note that GDP was negative despite a 160 billion dollar stimulus package, which stimulated nothing, and despite substantially increased US exports due to the weakness of the dollar. Yes, it is that bad, and it is going to get a lot worse.

The dollar continues to bounce around between 76 and 77.5 on the USDX, as the PPT continues to put on a show for the benefit of the incumbent scum while the reprobates and sociopaths, who pass themselves off as our political leaders, cause us to puke with their corn-ball theatrical performances at the Jackass and Dumbo Follies, which some dare to call political conventions. Aside from direct collusion and intervention by central banks, dollar support has resulted from several “cutesy” moves. When the SEC decided to enforce the law against naked-shorting, albeit only for the “Magnificent 19,” this caused a huge short-squeeze that put many hedge funds under water. The troubled funds were forced to bail themselves out, and that meant selling their winners in long oil contracts, which in turn collapsed the price of oil. This sharp drop in oil prices then wiped out a huge hedge fund that was long oil big-time, causing oil prices to collapse even further.

Dollars had to be purchased to acquire the liquidated oil contracts, thus supporting the dollar, and these dollar proceeds were then used to pay down margins at big commercial and investment banks, which then used the margin-covering funds to purchase treasuries not only to make a return, but also to absorb the dollars that had been flushed out by the collapse in oil prices. More

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Deep changes are needed in the U.S. system and big Wall Street banks should not be rescued by the authorities when they run into trouble, to avoid moral hazard, [Jim] Rogers told CNBC Europe. “They’re bailing out Wall Street, because all their friends are on Wall Street,” he said. “When Ben Bernanke gets a phone call from the head Lehman, he takes the call, but if some poor school teacher in Oklahoma calls him, he doesn’t take the call. He’s dealing with his friends on Wall Street trying to save them when in fact he should let them fail. That would be the better solution, at least for 300 million Americans,” Rogers added. More

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PETER S. GOODMAN
Economic trouble has spread far beyond the United States to major countries in Europe and Asia, threatening American businesses with the loss of foreign sales and investment that have become increasingly vital to their sustenance. Only a few months ago, some economists still offered hope that robust expansion could continue in much of the world even as the United States slowed. Foreign investment was expected to keep replenishing American banks still bleeding from their disastrous bets on real estate and to provide money for companies looking to expand. Overseas demand for American goods and services was supposed to continue compensating for waning demand in the States.

Now, high energy prices, financial systems crippled by fear, and the decline of trading partners have combined to choke growth in many major economies. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to slow significantly through the end of this year, dipping to 4.1 percent from 5 percent in 2007. “The global economy is in a tough spot, caught between sharply slowing demand in many advanced economies and rising inflation everywhere,” the I.M.F. declared last month in its official World Economic Outlook. All this means that economic troubles in the United States could intensify into the presidential election season and beyond. It could also make it harder for financial companies like Lehman Brothers — which has been seeking fresh investment in South Korea — and the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to attract much-needed capital from abroad. More

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Bloomberg
A failure of U.S. mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be a catastrophe for the global financial system, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. “If the U.S. government allows Fannie and Freddie to fail and international investors are not compensated adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic,” Yu said in e-mailed answers to questions yesterday. “If it is not the end of the world, it is the end of the current international financial system. The seriousness of such failures could be beyond the stretch of people’s imagination,” said Yu, a professor at the Institute of World Economics & Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. More

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A recent study from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has zero credibility. It pegged likely taxpayer losses in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailouts at $25 billion. For those with a sense of history, it is worth remembering that the S&L bailout had a $160 billion price tag. The numbers diverge so far from reality as to be laugh-out-loud funny. Funny, that is, except that the CBO estimate demonstrates a willful disconnect with the actual consequences of federal government actions. As demonstrated below, the real cost of the bailouts will easily exceed $1.3 trillion. In fact, the real cost is likely to range between $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion, and is not unlikely to reach $2.5 trillion. More

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It Is Time
The Automatic Earth
The main development in financial markets in the past 6 months, bar none, has been the accelerated influx of taxpayers’ money into the US and EU economies, in an alleged but highly suspect attempt to “save” financial markets. Today, August 21 2008, marks another such watershed moment that I simply have to call. A number of developments come together to mark the moment.. I think I first realized it fully when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac share prices were rising this morning. There is no reason for that, and it won’t last. But it does shine a blindingly clear light on other things: Their shares went up because everything else is worse.

The main development may be that foreigners are no longer willing to buy US debt paper, at least not in the way they have until now. Lehman, one of the oldest, best connected and largest US investment banks, until recently, tried to sell 50% of itself to foreign funds. They refused to buy. 6 months ago, it would have been unthinkable to offer 50% of such an institution to a Chinese fund. Congress would have forbidden it. Today, there’s no such protest. Just a “Thanks, but No, Thanks” from the Chinese. Moreover, there’s a avalanche of reports on the desperate situation at the other investments giants, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Waiting in the wings are the commercial banks, with Citigroup teetering toward oblivion.

Fannie and Freddie are long beyond salvation; the only reason they haven’t been liquidated to date is politics, the same kind that allows Ford and General Motors to pose as going concerns. But neither Washington nor the Federal Reserve could possibly save the US financial system anymore, even if they wanted to, something I question. The number of institutions being hurled into the black abyss is increasing so fast, they wouldn’t know where to start anymore. The game in town is saving the Hampton estates and the Learjets with tax revenue funds. It’s a game the market makers are good at. The only consolation for the US is that the entire planet is incredibly shrinking into a credit crunch the likes of which nobody’s ever even dreamed of.

Mark Faber claims Asian current account surpluses (and I’d add: holdings of foreign debt) will lose 50% of their value in the next few months, and I think he’s dead on (though I doubt it’ll boost the US dollar). Also, the European Central Bank can’t prop up EU banks any longer, and that will turn ugly, especially in Spain where Don Quixote is set to meet Franco in Guernica. What has changed recently, and certainly today, is that the respected media now start saying the same things I’ve been warning about for a long time. So the only consolation for me is that I’ve been right about it all, and all along.

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“We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks,” said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist from 2001 to 2004. More

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Ellen Brown
Source: Global Research
Last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had just announced record losses, and so had most reporting corporations. Unemployment was mounting, the foreclosure crisis was deepening, state budgets were in shambles, and massive bailouts were everywhere. Investors had every reason to expect the dollar and the stock market to plummet, and gold and oil to shoot up. Strangely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300 points, the dollar strengthened, and gold and oil were crushed. What happened?

It hardly took psychic powers to see that the Plunge Protection Team had come to the rescue. Formally known as the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, the PPT was once concealed and its very existence denied as if it were a matter of strict national security. But the PPT has now come out of the closet. What was once a legally questionable “manipulator” of markets has become a sanctioned stabilizer and protector of markets. The new tone was set in January 2008, when global markets took their worst tumble since September 11, 2001. Senator Hillary Clinton said in a statement reported by the State News Service:

“I think it’s imperative that the following step be taken. The President should have already and should do so very quickly, convene the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. That’s something that he can ask the Secretary of the Treasury to do. . . . This has to be coordinated across markets with the regulators here and obviously with regulators and central banks around the world.”1

The mystery over what was going on with the dollar the first week in August was solved by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, who wrote on August 7:

“[T]he banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal government’s deficit continues to soar out of control. . . . So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.

“When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

“On July 16, 2008 . . . , the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. . . . So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others.”2

Just as central banks manipulate currencies in concert, so gold can be manipulated by massive selling of central bank reserves. Oil and any other market can be manipulated as well. But markets can be manipulated by only so much and for only so long without fixing the underlying problem. There is more bad news coming down the pike, news of such magnitude that no amount of ordinary manipulation is liable to conceal it.

For one thing, roughly $400 billion in ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) have or will reset between March and October of this year. Assuming 3 to 6 months for strapped debtors to actually hit the wall with their payments, a huge wave of defaults is about to strike, continuing through March 2009 – just in time for the next huge wave of resets, in option ARMs.3 Option ARMs are loans with the option to pay even less than just the interest on the loan monthly, increasing the loan balance until the loan reaches a certain amount (typically 110% to 125% of the original loan balance), when it resets. The $800 billion credit line recently opened to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be not only tapped but tapped out, at taxpayer expense. The underlying problem is little discussed but impossible to repair – a one quadrillion dollar derivatives scheme that is now imploding. Banks everywhere are facing massive writeoffs, putting the whole banking system on the brink of collapse. Only public bailouts will save it, but they could bankrupt the nation.

What to do? War and threats of war have been used historically to distract the population and deflect public scrutiny from economic calamity. As the scheme was summed up in the trailer to the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog” –

“There’s a crisis in the White House, and to save the election, they’d have to fake a war.”

Perhaps that explains the sudden breakout of war in the Eurasian country of Georgia on August 8, just 3 months before the November elections. August 8 was the day the Olympic Games began in Beijing, a distraction that may have been timed to keep China from intervening on Ru