NightBlogger

Karl Denninger
Market Ticker
The EU has decided to guarantee interbank lending, doing what the G7 refused to announce after their meeting. But they remain cautious:

“I don’t even want to imagine what might happen” if the markets react negatively, Klaus-Peter Mueller, head of the German banking association, said earlier today in Washington before the blueprint was unveiled. The market response may be something “we haven’t seen at any stage in our lifetimes.”

No kidding.

This should slam Euribor (Euro Libor) to the mat. It better.

If it instead spikes it higher then the game is over and markets around the world will instantaneously collapse in unison - both stock and credit. Bunds, Gilts, Ts, all of them will get sold in a furious attempt to raise cash to meet ever-spiraling margin calls and liquidation of leveraged positions. More

Ambrose Evans- Pritchard
It feels like the summer of 1931. The world’s two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt. No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution. The International Monetary Fund has abdicated into schizophrenia. It has upgraded its 2008 world forecast from 3.7pc to 4.1pc growth, whilst warning of a “chance of a global recession”. Plainly, the IMF cannot or will not offer any useful insights.

The eurozone is falling into recession before the US itself. Its level of credit stress is worse, if measured by Euribor or the iTraxx bond indexes. Core inflation has fallen over the last year from 1.9pc to 1.8pc. The US may soon tip into a second leg of this crisis as the fiscal package runs out and Americans lose jobs in earnest. US bank credit has contracted for three months. Real US wages fell at almost 10pc (annualised) over May and June. This is a ferocious squeeze for an economy already in the grip of the property and debt crunch. No doubt the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - $5.3 trillion pillars of America’s mortgage market - stinks of moral hazard. The Treasury is to buy shares: the Fed has opened its window yet wider. Risks have been socialised. Any rewards will go to capitalists. More